Hollywood is currently facing a crucial moment, and the 160,000 actors who make up SAG-AFTRA are in a powerful position. The question on everyone’s mind is whether there will be an actors strike, adding to the ongoing writers strike that has been going on for nine weeks. The potential impact of two strikes is uncertain. Will SAG-AFTRA continue negotiations with the studios and then decide to strike? Or will they reach a deal without resorting to a strike? The possibility of an actors strike would only worsen the already struggling entertainment industry, which is still reeling from the effects of the writers strike.
According to FilmmakerFocus, SAG-AFTRA and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers are considering extending negotiations until next week or even later, possibly until July 7th. This decision would make sense, as many people in Hollywood will be out of town for a long weekend.
In addition to these uncertainties, there are numerous rumors circulating on the picket lines and in Beverly Hills lunch spots. Some suggest that SAG is not as close to reaching a deal as a video by Fran Drescher and Duncan Crabtree-Ireland implied. There are also rumors that the Directors Guild of America (DGA) has been urging SAG-AFTRA leadership to accept a deal instead of going on strike.
Another topic of discussion is which top executive or executives will step up to find a compromise if the actors do join the writers on the picket line. In previous strikes, influential figures like Lew Wasserman or a group of executives had to intervene to reach a resolution. However, this year, there doesn’t seem to be anyone of that stature willing to take charge.
One thing is certain: if SAG-AFTRA calls for a strike, whether at midnight PT on Friday or sometime next week, it will have significant consequences for the entertainment industry. FilmmakerFocus has outlined several potential outcomes if the actors join the writers on the picket lines. These include the complete shutdown of scripted television and feature films, the impact on Wall Street and the studios’ financials, and the potential disruption of events like the Emmys, Comic-Con, and the fall film festival season.
Most scripted television series have already been halted due to the writers strike. Only a few, like the Kim Kardashian-starring “American Horror Story,” are still in production. This shutdown has affected cities like Los Angeles, New York, and Atlanta.
If the actors decide to strike, there will be even more casualties. Many U.S. series are currently being filmed abroad, particularly in the UK and Europe, and these productions will also come to a halt. These include shows like “House of the Dragon,” “Andor,” “Slow Horses,” and “Industry.” Additionally, upcoming titles such as HBO’s Kate Winslet drama “The Palace,” Peacock’s remake of “Day of the Jackal,” and Julianne Moore’s “Mary & George” could be affected. Even British series with U.S. involvement, like the co-production of “Doctor Who” for Disney+, will likely be impacted. Fortunately, “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power,” which recently wrapped up filming in the UK, should not be affected.
SAG-AFTRA’s Global Rule One, which is more stringent than WGA rules, states that members cannot work for any employer who has not signed a basic minimum agreement with the union. This rule applies in any jurisdiction where there is a SAG-AFTRA national collective bargaining agreement in place.
The fall broadcast schedule in the U.S., which has already been heavily impacted by the writers strike, would face further disruptions if a SAG-AFTRA strike were to occur. Unscripted shows, which have started to recover from the slow start caused by the writers strike, would also be affected. Many broadcast shows rely on WGA and SAG-AFTRA talent for hosting and executive producing, and some game shows and competition shows have already been forced to delay production.Production in Hollywood is at risk of coming to a screeching halt if a full-on SAG-AFTRA strike occurs. This would have a global impact on feature films, leaving the Q4 theatrical release calendar empty. The potential strike is causing major concerns for motion picture executives, who are already dealing with the aftermath of the WGA strike. Disney has been forced to delay the release of several movies, pushing them back as far as 2027. However, there are some films that are still on track for release, such as “Thunderbolts” and “Deadpool 3”.
The strike is also affecting major feature shoots, with films like “Gladiator 2”, “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part Two”, “Venom 3”, and “Juror No. 2” potentially being shut down. On the other hand, some productions are rushing to finish before the strike hits, including “Bad Boys 4”, “Beetlejuice 2”, “Minecraft”, “Ghostbusters: Afterlife”, and “Back to Black”.
The strike is even threatening the Emmys, with discussions about whether the annual TV awards will proceed as scheduled in September. If the strike continues or is extended, it could pose logistical challenges for the event. San Diego Comic-Con is also at risk, with many TV creators unable to attend due to the WGA picketing. However, if talks between the AMPTP and SAG-AFTRA are ongoing and no strike is called, actors may still show up, making it a more exciting event than anticipated.
Indie filmmakers have also been affected, as they were unable to secure bonds for projects that weren’t guaranteed to wrap before June 30. Some projects have been postponed or canceled altogether. However, there is hope for qualified independent films through waivers, although they won’t be granted until the current contract expires. This raises questions about the official end date of the contract and its impact on productions starting in July.
Overall, the industry is on edge as they navigate the potential consequences of a SAG-AFTRA strike. Producers are being forced to make decisions without knowing the full terms of the strike, adding to the uncertainty and tension in Hollywood.The entertainment industry is on edge as the potential actors’ strike looms. The industry is waiting for the actors’ union, SAG-AFTRA, to grant waivers for productions to continue during the strike. However, the details of the union’s latest proposals are not public, leaving many in the dark. In the past, waivers required agreeing to final deal terms, so it’s uncertain how this will play out. Despite the uncertainty, some believe that holding out may not lead to a better outcome. Most actor pay goes to big stars who are already paid above scale anyway.
The status of films is a sensitive issue, and it’s difficult to gauge how many have been caught off guard and how many are waiting until year-end to see how things unfold. This means that the issue may become acute three months down the road. Some speculate that filmmakers who attended Berlin and Cannes may have already secured clearances from SAG before the strike threat emerged.
There is still a lot of indie content that was made during the pandemic and has yet to be sold. This content could help fill pipelines and provide some relief during the strike.
However, independent productions that have no connection to any AMPTP company may face challenges. While they can theoretically carry their waivers to financiers and bond companies, the hyped-up activity on picket lines may deter these entities from accepting the waivers. There’s a production risk if actors who are willing to work refuse to cross the picket lines.
Another concern for productions in the US is the Teamsters, who have not been crossing WGA picket lines, even if actors are willing to. This creates a complicated situation where the union grants waivers, but the talent refuses to work, leaving productions in limbo and potentially facing lawsuits.
The impact of a strike would be sudden and significant for the international business as well as the US industry. Fall festivals, which rely heavily on A-list talent, may be affected. However, festival organizers have not received any direct signs from studios or talent about the strike. Some are proceeding with their planning, assuming that talent will be available, while others are bringing international junkets forward to avoid potential disruptions.
The strike also poses challenges for Wall Street, as it’s difficult to predict the duration and scope of the labor action. Linear television will likely suffer, while streamers like Netflix, with their vast content libraries, may benefit. Analysts see the strike as a potential near-term tailwind for Netflix, raising its stock price target.
The impact on theatrical releases is harder to measure, as studios have limited active production, and independent films may be more affected. The exhibition industry could take a hit if the flow of films falters, especially as theaters are still recovering from the pandemic.
While the strikes may be a headache for Hollywood, they could create opportunities for non-English-language content to flourish in the market with less competition from English-language films.
Overall, the industry is bracing for the potential strike and hoping for more clarity in the coming months. The financial results and commentary from media companies will provide a better understanding of the impact. Some companies, like Fox and Comcast, may be better positioned to weather the storm, while others, like Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount, may be more exposed.
In the end, the strike is a qualitative and unpredictable issue that is difficult to trade or research. The industry will have to navigate through the uncertainties and adapt to the changing landscape.”Stocks are like a coin flip – you never know if the strike will be off tomorrow or if it will last for months. It’s as unpredictable as the weather,” remarked Supino.
