This summer has seen a few bumps in the road, including the disappointing performances of “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” “The Flash,” and “Elemental.” Despite these setbacks, the summer box office has still managed to reach $1.88 billion from May 1 to July 2, only 2% lower than the same period last year. These figures come from Comscore, a trusted source in the industry.
Considering the challenges faced during the pandemic, with theaters being forced to close in 2020 through early 2021, the current pacing of the box office isn’t terrible. However, the industry always strives to surpass the previous year’s numbers, especially after such a difficult time. In fact, during the same May 1 to July 2 period in 2020, the box office only grossed $47.3 million.
Looking back to the pre-pandemic summer of 2019, which was a blockbuster season led by Disney/Marvel Studios’ “Avengers: Endgame,” earning a whopping $416.7 million during that period, this summer is 17% behind. However, there is still hope for a strong July, with “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One” expected to open with a franchise record of $100 million over five days. Additionally, the release of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” could contribute to a weekend box office of nearly $200 million from July 21-23.
According to Comscore Senior Media Analyst Paul Dergarabedian, it’s too early to judge the overall performance of the summer box office as a hit or a miss. With many high-profile blockbusters scheduled for release in July and August, there is still a chance for the summer to end on a high note. Dergarabedian suggests that August could be the unexpected savior, just like last year when Sony’s “Bullet Train” provided a final boost before the post-pandemic logjam in post-production. This August, we can look forward to exciting releases such as Paramount’s “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem,” Warner Bros’ “The Meg 2,” Universal’s “The Last Voyage of the Demeter,” Sony’s “Gran Turismo,” Universal’s raunchy R-rated talking animals comedy “Strays,” Warner Bros/DC’s “Blue Beetle,” and Sony’s “The Equalizer 3.”
Despite stumbling with “Indiana Jones” and “Elemental,” Disney is currently leading all studios at the summer box office with an estimated $811 million, according to FilmmakerFocus calculations. Disney’s success can be attributed to their diverse slate of theatrical releases, including films from 20th Century Studios and tentpole productions. This surpasses the combined earnings of Universal and Sony, which have pulled in $620 million for the beach season. Disney has also been committed to providing theaters with longer windows for their releases, avoiding the controversial 17-day window to Disney+ streaming that caused backlash during the summer of 2021 under the leadership of CEO Bob Chapek.
As of now, the summer season accounts for 42% of the $4.5 million domestic box office total for the year from January 1 to July 2. Overall, 2023 is 18% ahead of 2022 but still 21% behind the record-breaking year of 2019. Disney currently holds five of the top ten movies of the summer, including “Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” “The Little Mermaid,” “Fast X,” and “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.” These films have collectively earned millions of dollars, with “Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3” leading the pack at $354.8 million.
Despite the challenges faced this summer, there is still potential for the box office to bounce back and exceed expectations. With upcoming releases and the possibility of a strong August, the summer season could end on a high note.
